A University of North Carolina researcher explains how polling failures, gambling legalization and political gridlock led to ...

Now, prediction markets are rejiggering the odds by requiring forecasters to back their convictions with cash. Participants ...

Like artificial intelligence, the Web3 world wants a piece of the action in online betting markets. There is no greater example than this than the August announcement by a former Polymarket executive ...

Prediction markets have moved from a niche academic concept into one of the fastest-growing areas of modern market infrastructure. Once confined to election forecasting and small experimental ...

Prediction market platform Kalshi is surging so much in Trump's second term, that it's prompted something of an arms race: Robinhood, Coinbase, FanDuel and DraftKings have all announced rival services ...

Three books unpack our infatuation with prediction, and what we lose when we outsource this task to machines. To be human is, fundamentally, to be a forecaster. Occasionally a pretty good one. Trying ...