The most likely range for 3-month bill yields is again the 1% to 2% range, just 20 basis points more likely than the 0% to 1% range. Treasury 2-year yields moved to 4% this week from 3.98% last week.

Treasury yields have shifted, with the 2-year yield at 3.99% and the 10-year yield at 4.32%, widening the 2-year/10-year spread to 0.33%. The probability of an inverted yield curve peaks at 24.2% by ...